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Prediction for CME (2024-10-02T14:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-10-02T14:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33688/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the S/SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and in a few frames of STEREO A imagery. The source is an eruption and subsequent M3.2 flare from AR 3842 (S18E09) starting around 2024-10-02T13:30Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304. There is a data gap in STEREO A COR2 imagery from 2024-10-02T14:08Z to 2024-10-02T17:08Z, in addition to being in campaign mode for the Parker Solar Probe perihelion pass which affects COR2A image quality and cadence. This CME would have been a good candidate for the observed 2024-10-06T06:55Z shock arrival at L1, however it had much slower speed than the observed solar wind speed of the shock at L1 (over 500 km/s), so the likelier candidate for the 2024-10-06T06:55Z arrival is the much faster 2024-10-03T12:48Z CME. Hence, the 2024-10-02T14:24Z CME may have been overtaken/swept by the faster 2024-10-03T12:48Z CME.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-10-06T13:07Z (-18.33h, +18.33h)
Prediction Method: ELEvo
Prediction Method Note:

CME input parameters:
Apex direction (deg): -7.0
Inverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7
Angular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 20.0

initial CME speed: 437.0 (+/- 50) km/s
initial height: 21.5 R_sun
initial time:     2024-10-02T21:17Z
drag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km 
ambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s
time step: 10 min
ensemble members: 50k

Lead Time: 76.67 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Maike Bauer (ASWO) on 2024-10-03T08:27Z

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